Domestic demand for construction machinery continues to recover

Release date 2025-12-28 15:30:21 Reading 1

use excavator overseas growth accelerates.Domestic excavator sales continue to grow in November 2025, with significant recovery in non excavator categories

In November 2025, the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in China was 20027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%; Among them, 9842 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. From January to November 2025, the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in China reached 212162 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%; Among them, 108187 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. The domestic sales of non excavation category construction machinery show a clear trend of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 29.4% in the sales of loaders in November 2025; The domestic sales volume of graders increased by 24.7% year-on-year; The domestic sales volume of automobile cranes increased by 25.8% year-on-year; Domestic sales of crawler cranes increased by 102.0% year-on-year; The domestic sales volume of on-board cranes increased by 36.4% year-on-year.use excavatoruse excavator

In November 2025, the sales volume of domestic construction machinery continued to grow, confirming the upward trend of domestic demand cycle recovery. From the perspective of growth sources, we still believe that the continuous growth of construction machinery upgrades will drive the sales of construction machinery. The sales of construction machinery such as excavators grew rapidly from the bottom of 2015 to the peak in early 2021. Considering that the service life of construction machinery is usually 8-10 years, we estimate that there will be a compound 30% increase in replacement volume of domestic construction machinery in 25 years and the following years, which is expected to provide strong support for future excavator sales. In addition, a large number of construction machinery second-hand phones are exported to developing countries overseas, which objectively lowers the domestic ownership of construction machinery and is also an important factor supporting the sales of new machines.

use excavatorProactive fiscal policy drives infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained recovery in mid-term demand for construction machinery

The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th, 2025. The meeting pointed out that in 2026, we should continue to implement more proactive fiscal policies, maintain necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure, strengthen scientific fiscal management, optimize fiscal expenditure structure, and standardize tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies. The meeting also pointed out the need to promote investment to stop falling and stabilize, appropriately increase the scale of investment within the central budget, optimize the implementation of "dual" projects, optimize the management of the use of local government special bonds, continue to play the role of new policy financial instruments, and effectively stimulate the vitality of private investment. The proactive fiscal policy is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment next year, thereby driving downstream equipment demand.

Excavator exports continue to grow in November 2025, and there is still great potential for construction machinery to go global

In terms of sales, the export sales of excavators in November 2025 were 10185 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%; From January to November 2025, the export sales of excavators reached 103975 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. In terms of amount, the export value of construction machinery in China in November 2025 was 5.23 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; The export value of construction machinery in China from January to November 2025 was 53.76 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. In the future, China's engineering machinery exports will face opportunities and challenges such as changes in the Russia Ukraine situation, increased demand for infrastructure and mining machinery in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East markets, and increased penetration rates in high-end markets in Europe and America. At the same time, they will also face the risk of uncertainty in tariffs between China and the United States. As China's leading construction machinery companies increase their overseas expansion efforts, the export of construction machinery is expected to maintain a growth trend.

In November 2025, the sales of electric loaders will maintain a significant upward trend, and the electrification of construction machinery is expected to accelerate

In November 2025, the sales of electric loaders reached 2935 units, a year-on-year increase of 192.0%; The electrification rate reached 25.7%, an increase of 14.1 percentage points year-on-year. From January to November 2025, the sales of electric loaders reached 27049 units, a year-on-year increase of 160.9%; The electrification rate reached 23.4%, an increase of 12.9 percentage points year-on-year. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that by 2026, we will deepen the energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation of key industries. We believe that greening and electrification are one of the key development directions for the construction machinery industry in the future. Domestic manufacturers are constantly catching up with the trend of electrification, and the process of electrification of construction machinery is expected to accelerate, bringing further increase in revenue and profit for host factories.use excavatoruse excavator

use excavatorThe commencement of the Yaxia hydropower project is expected to drive an increase in demand for construction machinery

On July 19, the commencement ceremony of the the Yarlung Zangbo River Downstream Hydropower Project (hereinafter referred to as the Yaxia Hydropower Project) was held in Linzhi, Xizang Autonomous Region. As a large-scale water conservancy construction project, the Yaxia Hydropower Project has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, making it the largest hydropower station project currently planned globally. The Yaxia Hydropower Project mainly adopts the development method of "cutting bends and straightening, tunnel diversion", and is expected to construct 5 cascade hydropower stations. It is planned to be partially put into operation by 2030 and fully completed by 2035. Based on the experience of Three Gorges and other large-scale hydropower projects, the total investment in engineering machinery and equipment accounts for about 10% to 15% of the project investment, which means that the equipment demand can reach 120 billion to 180 billion yuan; Considering the high-altitude construction environment of the Yaxia hydropower project and the preference for new energy and unmanned equipment under environmental protection requirements, the actual demand for construction machinery may be higher. At that time, large excavators, rock tunnel boring machines, cranes, concrete machinery and other construction machinery are expected to become the main demand categories, which will continue to promote the construction machinery industry.use excavatoruse excavator

Risk analysis:

use excavatorInfrastructure investment has fallen short of expectations, overseas exports of construction machinery have fallen short of expectations, industry price competition has intensified, and there is uncertainty risk of tariffs between China and the United States.use excavatoruse excavator